Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol has fallen sharply, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery accounting for about 71 percent of petrol received into the country in August 2026, according to figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The regulator’s August 2026 State of the Midstream and Downstream Sector report showed that total petrol receipts increased to approximately 50.5 million litres per day, up from 45.5 million litres daily in July.

Domestic supplies accounted for about 35.9 million litres per day, representing 71 percent of total petrol receipts during the month. The figure was also a significant increase from the 25.8 million litres supplied domestically in July.

The development highlights the growing role of the Dangote refinery in meeting Nigeria’s fuel requirements as the country moves away from its previous heavy reliance on imported petrol.

Imports remain part of the supply chain

Despite the rise in domestic refining, imported petrol has not disappeared from Nigeria’s supply system.

Available industry figures indicate that Nigeria imported an average of about 14.6 million litres of petrol per day in August, compared with 19.7 million litres daily in July.

This means imports continue to provide an alternative source of supply, although their contribution has declined as domestic production increases.

The reduction in imports also comes as petrol consumption fell during the month. According to the NMDPRA data, petrol consumption dropped by 14 percent to approximately 41.5 million litres per day based on volumes transported into the domestic market.

Questions over supply resilience

The growing dependence on a single major refinery has also raised questions about how Nigeria would respond if the facility experienced an unexpected disruption.

A temporary shutdown caused by equipment failure, maintenance or other operational issues could require marketers to quickly source replacement supplies.

However, replacing a large volume of domestic production would involve more than simply securing additional petrol. Importers would need financing, access to cargoes, shipping arrangements, storage facilities and an efficient distribution network to move fuel to different parts of the country.

Planned maintenance can be managed through advance procurement and stockpiling, while an unexpected disruption could place greater pressure on available inventories and alternative suppliers.

Petrol stock levels improve

The NMDPRA report also indicated an improvement in fuel stock sufficiency.

By the end of August, petrol stocks were estimated to provide about 22.9 days of supply, while diesel stocks stood at approximately 51.6 days based on the regulator’s reported figures.

The stock position provides some buffer against short-term disruptions, although available inventories at a particular point in time do not necessarily represent a nationwide emergency reserve.

The location of the stocks, existing supply commitments, storage capacity and the ability to transport products quickly across the country would all determine how effectively such inventories could respond to a major supply interruption.

Nigeria’s refining landscape continues to change

The increased contribution from domestic refineries represents a major shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.

Beyond the Dangote refinery, some modular refineries have also recorded varying levels of production. Edo Refinery, for instance, recorded the highest capacity utilisation among the modular facilities listed in the NMDPRA report, followed by Walter Smith and Aradel.

The broader objective for Nigeria remains the development of sufficient domestic refining capacity to reduce exposure to international fuel markets and strengthen energy security.

At the same time, the country’s increasing reliance on Dangote for petrol supply makes the availability of alternative sources, strategic inventories and import capacity important components of any contingency plan.

For consumers and businesses, the key issue will be whether Nigeria can maintain reliable petrol availability while expanding domestic refining and retaining enough flexibility to respond quickly when disruptions occur.

About The Author

News Reporter

See author's posts