Countries that are attracting little of the massive investment flowing into artificial intelligence could still bear some of the economic costs associated with the technology boom, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday that the global economy is facing a difficult combination of elevated energy costs, growing debt burdens and an investment surge in artificial intelligence whose benefits are not being evenly distributed.

Georgieva made the remarks in Singapore ahead of next week’s IMF–World Bank meetings in Bangkok, where updated economic forecasts are expected.

She noted that the end of the Gulf war may not immediately translate into lower energy prices, while global public debt is expected to rise above 100 per cent of global GDP before 2030. The combination could put additional pressure on governments already struggling to balance spending needs with rising borrowing costs.

AI Growth Benefits Remain Uneven

According to Georgieva, IMF research indicates that artificial intelligence could increase global economic growth by about half a percentage point annually if countries are able to harness its potential effectively.

However, the AI boom also carries significant risks. These include concentrated investment, weaker-than-expected returns from AI-related businesses and possible disruption to employment as technology changes the nature of work.

The IMF chief urged governments to prepare workers for changes in the labour market, encourage entrepreneurship and strengthen energy security while developing appropriate policies for regulating artificial intelligence.

She also stressed the importance of protecting vulnerable populations as governments attempt to maintain fiscal discipline.

Debt and Energy Pressures

The IMF’s warning comes as governments face increasingly difficult choices over how to finance development while managing their debt obligations.

Higher international interest rates can increase the cost of new borrowing and refinancing. At the same time, elevated energy prices can raise production and operating costs across economies.

For countries that are not major beneficiaries of the AI investment boom, the situation could be particularly challenging because they may have to spend more on energy, infrastructure and worker training without receiving a comparable share of AI-related investment.

Implications for Nigeria

Nigeria could experience both positive and negative effects from higher energy prices.

Higher crude oil prices could increase the country’s export earnings if oil production and sales remain strong. However, more expensive crude could also increase the cost of feedstock for domestic refineries.

The impact on petrol prices would depend on several factors, including exchange rates, existing inventories, refining margins and distribution costs.

Nigeria could also face higher costs when accessing international debt markets if global borrowing conditions tighten. However, this would not automatically increase interest payments on existing fixed-rate loans and bonds.

Tough Choices Ahead

Georgieva’s comments highlight the difficult policy decisions facing governments as they attempt to benefit from the AI revolution while dealing with energy disruptions and rising debt.

For African economies, the challenge is particularly significant because investments in electricity, digital infrastructure and workforce training must compete with debt servicing and other public spending priorities.

The IMF did not announce a new Nigeria-specific growth projection in Georgieva’s speech. The Fund’s July forecast had placed global growth at three per cent for 2026, with updated projections expected during the upcoming meetings in Bangkok.

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