Nigeria’s Non-Crude Exports Surpass Crude Oil Earnings in Historic Trade Shift

Nigeria recorded a major shift in its export profile in the second quarter of 2026, as earnings from non-crude oil exports surpassed revenue from crude oil for the first time in the country’s recorded trade history.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria earned N14.11 trillion from non-crude oil exports between April and June 2026, compared with N12.91 trillion from crude oil exports.

The development means crude oil accounted for less than half of Nigeria’s total merchandise exports during the quarter, the first time this has happened since comparable NBS records began in 2008.

Refined products drive the transformation

The changing composition of Nigeria’s exports was largely driven by the rapid expansion of refined petroleum products and other energy-related commodities.

Exports of kerosene, aviation fuel, natural gas, urea and other petroleum gases generated about N9.7 trillion during the quarter, representing roughly 70 percent of total non-crude oil exports.

The development reflects Nigeria’s growing ability to export processed petroleum products rather than relying predominantly on shipments of unrefined crude.

A major contributor to this change has been the ramp-up of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has increased domestic refining and significantly expanded Nigeria’s refined-product exports.

Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum-product exports averaged about 350,000 barrels per day during the second quarter, a significant increase from approximately 46,000 barrels per day in 2023.

Dangote Refinery emerges as a major export driver

The 700,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has become increasingly important to Nigeria’s changing trade structure.

Following maintenance and capacity improvements completed earlier in 2026, the refinery increased output at a time when disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tightened global refined-product supplies.

The facility has subsequently expanded exports of diesel, petrol and aviation fuel to international markets across Europe, Africa and other regions.

Dangote Refinery’s chairman, Aliko Dangote, has said the facility has maintained production capacity of about 700,000 barrels per day in recent months. The refinery is also currently Nigeria’s sole producer and supplier of jet fuel.

The impact has been particularly visible in the European aviation-fuel market. In June, the refinery exported about 466,000 tonnes of jet fuel, representing approximately one-fifth of Europe’s total jet-fuel imports for the month.

The refinery’s growing export footprint suggests Nigeria is gradually moving from being primarily a crude-oil supplier towards becoming a more significant exporter of higher-value petroleum products.

Trade surplus widens sharply

Nigeria’s broader trade position also improved significantly during the quarter.

Total merchandise exports rose 18.8 percent year-on-year to N27.02 trillion, while imports declined 12.6 percent to N14.42 trillion.

As a result, the country’s trade surplus expanded to N12.60 trillion, compared with N6.26 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. Total trade during the quarter stood at N41.44 trillion.

The figures point to stronger export earnings alongside a decline in the value of goods entering the country.

However, crude oil remains important to Nigeria’s refining ambitions. Crude imports rose to N786 billion during the quarter as domestic refineries continued purchasing crude feedstock to support local processing.

Dangote Refinery alone disclosed that it imported 40.4 million barrels of crude valued at $4.48 billion during May and June 2026.

Urea adds another source of export growth

The export boom was not limited to petroleum products.

Nigeria’s urea exports rose sharply during the quarter to N2.1 trillion, despite the commodity not ranking among the country’s five largest export products during the corresponding period in 2025.

The increase was partly linked to a surge in global fertiliser prices following disruptions associated with the Iran war and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Global urea prices reportedly doubled within weeks after the effective closure of the strategic shipping route in late February, creating an opportunity for Nigerian producers to increase export earnings.

Solid mineral exports also recorded significant growth, rising by 90 percent to N146.91 billion.

Manufacturing and agriculture remain under pressure

Despite the strong headline export numbers, the data also reveal weaknesses in some areas of Nigeria’s non-oil economy.

Agricultural exports fell 36 percent to N802.99 billion, while manufactured goods exports dropped 51 percent year-on-year to N393.03 billion.

Economist Ayo Teriba, chief executive of Economic Associates, warned that Nigeria’s industrial sector remains heavily exposed to high energy and transportation costs.

The implication is that while refined petroleum products and other commodities are boosting export earnings, the broader diversification of Nigeria’s productive economy remains incomplete.

For Nigeria to sustain the shift away from crude dependence, increased investment in refining, manufacturing, agriculture, mining and other productive sectors will be critical.

India leads Nigeria’s export destinations

India emerged as Nigeria’s largest export destination during the second quarter, receiving goods worth N3.29 trillion, equivalent to 12.2 percent of total exports.

More than two-thirds of Nigeria’s exports to India were non-crude products, particularly refined petroleum products.

Spain followed with N1.98 trillion, while the Netherlands, United States and Togo recorded N1.90 trillion, N1.73 trillion and N1.50 trillion respectively.

Within Africa, Togo, South Africa and Côte d’Ivoire were Nigeria’s leading export destinations, collectively accounting for 61 percent of Nigeria’s exports to the continent.

A potential turning point for Nigeria

The second-quarter figures represent more than a temporary change in export composition. They could signal the beginning of a structural transformation in Nigeria’s relationship with its oil industry.

For decades, Nigeria’s international trade has been dominated by crude oil, leaving government revenue and foreign-exchange earnings highly exposed to crude production levels and global oil prices.

The emergence of refined petroleum products, fertiliser, natural gas and solid minerals as major export earners could provide a broader foundation for foreign-exchange generation.

However, sustaining the trend will depend on whether Nigeria can expand productive capacity beyond a handful of large energy projects.

If refining capacity continues to grow and investments in manufacturing, agriculture and mining translate into higher production, Nigeria could gradually evolve from an economy that primarily exports raw resources into one that earns more from processed and higher-value products.

The second quarter of 2026 may therefore prove to be an important milestone in that transition — one in which non-crude exports, for the first time, generated more export earnings than crude oil.

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